London, UK, 23 May 2022

Nicox (COX): Eye health portfolio targets large markets

Nicox’s lead candidate NCX-470 continues to advance in the Mont Blanc Phase III trial targeting the topical treatment of glaucoma, having recently reached 98% enrolment. While Mont Blanc data are still expected in Q123, the company has recently pushed back the forecast completion timeline for Denali, the second Phase III trial, and we have thus postponed our NCX-470 launch expectation into H226 (from H225). Nicox’s decision to advance NCX-4251 into dry eye disease (DED) significantly boosts the commercial prospects of this proprietary corticosteroid formulation, as over 30 million people in the United States experience DED. We derive a risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) valuation of €298m, up from €294m previously.

We continue to apply a risk-adjusted net present value model with a 12.5% cost of capital. We obtain an rNPV of €298m, up from €294m previously, due to an increase in our NCX-4251 valuation, offset by the pushback in our NCX-470 US launch timing estimate and reduced Vyzulta net pricing estimates. After including €14.6m in Q122 net cash, we obtain an equity valuation of €312.4m or €7.23 per basic share (vs €7.44 previously). We model that Nicox’s funds on hand should last through Q423 and that it will need to raise €104m (modelled as illustrative debt) before year-end 2026 (up from €45m previously) before launching NCX-470.

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