Original-Research: Vectron Systems AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Vectron Systems AG

Unternehmen: Vectron Systems AG
ISIN: DE000A0KEXC7

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 10.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Matthias Greiffenberger

H1 2023: 'On track': Turnover in line with expectations; EBITDA climbs significantly; GBC-Forecasts raised; Target price raised to €10.00 (previously: €9.40); Rating: BUY
 
The first six months of 2023 were marked by the consolidation of acardo group AG, which was acquired on 1st January 2023. acardo sales, which were consolidated for the first time, contributed significantly to a strong increase in sales by 47.6 % to € 18.53 million (previous year: € 12.56 million). While sales in the POS segment (Vectron) increased organically by 4.6 % to € 13.13 million (previous year: € 12.56 million), the couponing segment (acardo) generated sales of € 5.40 million for the first time.  
With an EBITDA of € 1.66 million (previous year: € -0.54 million) the Vectron Group returned to the profit zone. The newly acquired acardo group AG made the largest contribution to the result with an EBITDA of € 1.35 million and is thus in line with management expectations. At the same time, it shows that the acquisition of acardo group AG has already had a sustainable positive effect on the profitability of the Vectron Group.   
The first-time consolidation of the acardo assets led to a significant increase in depreciation to € 2.08 million (previous year: € 0.78 million). Therefore, the EBIT of € -0.41 million (previous year: € -1.33 million) was once again below break-even, but was significantly improved. This also applies to the result for the Q2 period of € -0.47 million (previous year: € -0.98 million).
 
With the publication of the half-year report 2023, the Vectron management has confirmed the guidance published in March 2023. According to this, for the current business year 2023 sales of € 36.0 to 37.8 million and an EBITDA of € 1.3 to 2.2 million are still expected. For the coming financial year 2024, revenues of € 41.0 to 45.5 million and an EBITDA of € 4.0 to 6.2 million are still expected, and for 2025, revenues of € 48.8 to 54.2 million and an EBITDA of € 7.3 to 9.7 million. While the half-year revenues are in line with expectations, the EBITDA increase has been surprisingly strong.
 
Even though part of the half-year EBITDA of € 1.66 million achieved so far was influenced by special effects of around € 0.50 million, we consider the confirmed company guidance to be conservative. However, this should also take into account the fact that in the second half of 2023 there should no longer be a positive impact on earnings from extraordinary income. Furthermore, we assume that the Vectron board is deliberately acting cautiously against the background of the impending return to the standard Value Added Tax (VAT) of 19% for the catering/gastronomy industry. In the course of the Corona pandemic, the VAT rate, currently limited until 31 December 2023, was lowered to 7%.  An increase in the VAT rate could dampen the willingness to invest in the gastronomy sector. In addition, the current economic development in Germany is a risk factor for the second half of 2023.
 
Nevertheless, we are a little more optimistic and are raising our EBITDA forecast to € 2.54 million (previous GBC forecast: € 1.82 million) in view of the good half-year development. This includes a continued increase in recurring digital revenues, which should benefit from the base effect (higher number of contracts) on the one hand and the rising transaction volume on the other. The upcoming introduction of further digital modules in the second half of the year should also accelerate the increase in recurring revenues.
 
In our EBIT forecast for the current and the coming financial years, we take into account the PPA depreciation necessary after the first-time full consolidation of the acardo assets. According to our estimates, this should lead to an increase in depreciation of around € 2.0 million annually. Therefore, despite the raised EBITDA forecast, EBIT is likely to be lower than before. Adjusted for PPA depreciation, however, we expect EBIT of € 1.04 million for 2023 (previous forecast: € 0.32 million). For the next two financial years, we are keeping both the revenue and earnings estimates (EBITDA; EBIT before PPA) unchanged. However, PPA amortisation should have a negative impact on EBIT 'as reported' and the after-tax result.   
As the higher PPA amortisation does not affect cashflow and liquidity, it has no impact on the result of the DCF valuation model. Due to the forecast increase for the current financial year and the regular roll-over effect, we are raising the price target to €10.00 (previously: €9.40). We keep the rating BUY.
 
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/27745.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) completion: 13.09.23 (3:02 pm) Date (time) first transmission: 14.09.23 (09:00 am)

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